In his latest Forbes article CMG Capital Management Group CEO Steve Blumenthal writes about the high median P/E ratio of the S&P 500 Index and historically what that has meant for forward returns for stocks. Excerpt and link to the story below. See all of Steve Blumenthal’s Forbes articles.
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Charting The New Bull Market in Gold – Blumenthal in Forbes
In Steve Blumenthal’s latest Forbes article he discusses a way to block out the noise of gold fever and adhere to a time-tested method of modulating exposure to gold. According to this trend-following method, says Steve, a new cyclical bull market period for gold has just begun. Excerpt from the Forbes story:
Consider the use of a simple trend-following process to trade gold. One of my favorite methods is to compare two smoothed moving-average price lines: a 13-week moving average and a slower 34-week moving average. Think of a moving average as a smoothing of the price of a security (or index) over the past number of weeks.
See the full story in Forbes: Charting The New Bull Market In Gold.
Recession Watch Intensifies – Blumenthal in Forbes
Steve Blumenthal’s latest Forbes article Portfolio Moves As U.S. Recession Signals Intensify is apparently hitting a chord with investors with more than 10,000 views in less than 48 hours. Excerpt below:
Hedging Equity Exposure – Blumenthal in Forbes
CMG Capital Management Group CEO Steve Blumenthal writes in his latest Forbes article:
“Many equity investors are feeling okay right now. Yes, the 2008 financial crisis was downright scary, with exploding credit spreads, disappearing financial institutions, and sharply declining stock market. However, if investors have stayed in equities since then, their wounds have healed.
Beware The Bear – Blumenthal in Forbes
CMG Capital Management Group CEO writes about strategies for this new volatile market in his latest Forbes article titled Welcome To The Opening Round Of The New Bear Market. Some excerpts from the piece:
“My view: it’s time to “sell the rallies” or use rallies as an opportunity to hedge. The fundamental evidence (valuations, growth, profit margins) and the technical evidence both look weak. From a technical perspective, this jolt to the equity market is the first shock and marks the beginning of a new cyclical bear market.
Investment Strategies For Global Recession – Blumenthal in Forbes
Steve Blumenthal’s latest Forbes article analyzes signals that point to a high probability of a global recession. An excerpt from the article:
Recent events and key economic models point to a high probability of a global recession. Ground zero of the coming global recession is likely Europe.
Buffett, Burgers And Stock Valuations – Blumenthal In Forbes
Are Stocks Really Cheap Relative To Bonds? Steve Blumenthal asks in his latest Forbes article. An excerpt from the article:
What looks cheap today becomes not so cheap when rates rise and, as you’ll see, the market is certainly “not cheap.”
The Fed’s zero interest policy (6 ½ years and counting) and QE bond buying activities have driven bond yields to historic lows and bond prices to historic highs (bond prices go down when interest rates (yields) rise and go up when interest rates decline).
How To Play This Crazy Bond Market – Blumenthal In Forbes
“This is just not normal,” CMG Capital Management Group CEO Steve Blumenthal writes in his latest Forbes article The ‘Bigger Short’ Or How To Play This Crazy Bond Market. “Nearly 90% of the industrialized world economy is presently anchored by zero rates, and half of all government bonds in the world today yield less than 1%. Wow. The race into risky assets continues, but those assets are bid up and richly priced.”
What can investors do in this crazy, mixed up bond market?
“One idea,’ Steve offers, “is to use a process like the Zweig Bond Model as a tool to identify the bond market’s primary trend. The Zweig Bond Model, named after the great Marty Zweig, has been in a sell signal since early April 2015 with the exception of one short week. It is in a sell at the time of this post.”
See the Forbes article The ‘Bigger Short’ Or How To Play This Crazy Bond Market. | See all Steve Blumenthal’s Forbes articles.
Blumenthal in Forbes: High Yield Opportunity
In the May 20 Webinar of the CMG High Yield Strategy Steve Blumenthal references an article he wrote in Forbes called Junk Bonds Are The Investment Opportunity Of A Lifetime, Just Not Yet. The Webinar was an interactive elaboration of the observations of the article. Below is an excerpt from that article:
Blumenthal in Forbes: Bond Model Says Sell
Steve Blumenthal, CEO of CMG Capital Management Group, writes in Forbes about”the year that interest rates will finally rise.” An excerpt:
“Employment figures continue to surpass analyst estimates and the trend over the last six months has been strong. Last Friday’s upside surprise sent interest rates higher. It is expected that the Fed moves off its zero bound peg by September.
“Liftoff is likely just the beginning of the journey. That popular song rings louder in my head, All About That Fed. The problem with rising rates is that bonds lose money, especially when your starting place is ultra-low yields.
“Confusion deepens the more you turn on CNBC. One expert shouts rates are going higher. The next argues they’re headed lower. Both make a good case.”
See the full story: Rate Hike Ahead, Bond Model Says Sell