Steve Blumenthal’s latest Forbes article analyzes signals that point to a high probability of a global recession. An excerpt from the article:
Recent events and key economic models point to a high probability of a global recession. Ground zero of the coming global recession is likely Europe.
Greece is screwed. Germany’s iron fist is going to come back to bite them. Greece, per se, doesn’t matter due to its small size; but this is not just about Greece. An unavoidable divide has occurred, particularly with France. Confidence and trust is lost. The Greek bailout deal is an economic disaster. Germany wants a smooth divorce. They just might get it. Greece should exit.
Italy, Spain, Portugal and France are up next. The debt and entitlement obligations are not manageable, period.
Let’s take a look at two models that have done a good job identifying recessions. One says we are near or currently in a global recession. The other focuses on the U.S. economy and does not yet warn of imminent recession.
What can investors do? Be selective. Relative strength continues to favor U.S. Health Care and Biotech sectors. Stay mindful of the signals for a global recession. The key to success in investing is not necessarily how much you gain but how much you can avoid losing.
See full story in Forbes: Investing With A High Probability Of Global Recession