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High Median P/E Suggests Low Equity Returns Ahead – Blumenthal in Forbes

Posted on 03.25.16 |

ForbesIn his latest Forbes article CMG Capital Management Group CEO Steve Blumenthal writes about the high median P/E ratio of the S&P 500 Index and historically what that has meant for forward returns for stocks.  Excerpt and link to the story below. See all of Steve Blumenthal’s Forbes articles.

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Categories: Tactical Investment Strategies Tags: EFA, Forbes, IWM, SPY, Steve Blumenthal, Stocks

Charting The New Bull Market in Gold – Blumenthal in Forbes

Posted on 02.28.16 |

ForbesIn Steve Blumenthal’s latest Forbes article he discusses a way to block out the noise of gold fever and adhere to a time-tested method of modulating exposure to gold. According to this trend-following method, says Steve, a new cyclical bull market period for gold has just begun. Excerpt from the Forbes story:

Consider the use of a simple trend-following process to trade gold. One of my favorite methods is to compare two smoothed moving-average price lines: a 13-week moving average and a slower 34-week moving average. Think of a moving average as a smoothing of the price of a security (or index) over the past number of weeks.

See the full story in Forbes: Charting The New Bull Market In Gold.

Categories: Portfolio Construction, top posts Tags: Forbes, Gold, Steve Blumenthal

Recession Watch Intensifies – Blumenthal in Forbes

Posted on 02.07.16 |

Forbes

Steve Blumenthal’s latest Forbes article Portfolio Moves As U.S. Recession Signals Intensify is apparently hitting a chord with investors with more than 10,000 views in less than 48 hours.  Excerpt below:

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Categories: Tactical Investment Strategies Tags: Forbes, recession, Steve Blumenthal

How To Profit From Runaway Debt And The Next Global Recession

Posted on 12.06.15 |

Forbes

Steve Blumenthal’s latest Forbes article outlines three big investing and market risks in 2016, and how investors might capitalize on opportunities presented in these scenarios.  The beginning of the story is below, with a link to the full copy. See the archive of Steve Blumenthal’s catalog of Forbes articles.

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Categories: CMG News Tags: Forbes, Steve Blumenthal

Hedging Equity Exposure – Blumenthal in Forbes

Posted on 10.25.15 |

ForbesCMG Capital Management Group CEO Steve Blumenthal writes in his latest Forbes article:

“Many equity investors are feeling okay right now. Yes, the 2008 financial crisis was downright scary, with exploding credit spreads, disappearing financial institutions, and sharply declining stock market. However, if investors have stayed in equities since then, their wounds have healed.

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Categories: Equities, Tactical Investment Strategies Tags: Equity Exposure, Forbes, Steve Blumenthal

Buffett, Burgers And Stock Valuations – Blumenthal In Forbes

Posted on 06.26.15 |

Are Stocks Really Cheap Relative To Bonds? Steve Blumenthal asks in his latest Forbes article. An excerpt from the article:

ForbesWhat looks cheap today becomes not so cheap when rates rise and, as you’ll see, the market is certainly “not cheap.”

The Fed’s zero interest policy (6 ½ years and counting) and QE bond buying activities have driven bond yields to historic lows and bond prices to historic highs (bond prices go down when interest rates (yields) rise and go up when interest rates decline).

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Categories: Tactical Investment Strategies Tags: Forbes, Stephen Blumenthal, Steve Blumenthal

How To Play This Crazy Bond Market – Blumenthal In Forbes

Posted on 06.12.15 |

Forbes“This is just not normal,” CMG Capital Management Group CEO Steve Blumenthal writes in his latest Forbes article The ‘Bigger Short’ Or How To Play This Crazy Bond Market. “Nearly 90% of the industrialized world economy is presently anchored by zero rates, and half of all government bonds in the world today yield less than 1%. Wow. The race into risky assets continues, but those assets are bid up and richly priced.”

What can investors do in this crazy, mixed up bond market?

“One idea,’ Steve offers, “is to use a process like the Zweig Bond Model as a tool to identify the bond market’s primary trend.  The Zweig Bond Model, named after the great Marty Zweig, has been in a sell signal since early April 2015 with the exception of one short week. It is in a sell at the time of this post.”

See the Forbes article The ‘Bigger Short’ Or How To Play This Crazy Bond Market. | See all Steve Blumenthal’s Forbes articles.

Categories: CMG News Tags: Forbes, Steve Blumenthal

Blumenthal in Forbes: High Yield Opportunity

Posted on 05.25.15 |

ForbesIn the May 20 Webinar of the CMG High Yield Strategy Steve Blumenthal references an article he wrote in Forbes called Junk Bonds Are The Investment Opportunity Of A Lifetime, Just Not Yet. The Webinar was an interactive elaboration of the observations of the article. Below is an excerpt from that article:

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Categories: Tactical Investment Strategies Tags: Forbes, high yield, Steve Blumenthal

High Yield Webinar

Posted on 05.15.15 |

Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group, counsels strategic patience in investingWednesday May 20 CMG Capital Management Group CEO Steve Blumenthal joins Head of Distribution Mike Sciortino for a timely video Webinar on high yield bonds. You can sign up here: CMG Managed High Yield Bond Program Webinar.

The Webinar is an interactive follow-up to Steve’s Forbes piece titled, Junk Bonds Are The Investment Opportunity Of A Lifetime, Just Not Yet.

Steve is going to present ideas about how to position high yield in your portfolio to participate in further gains and risk protect in a way that puts you in the favorable position to take advantage of a coming once in a lifetime buying opportunity.

Any high yield questions you would like Steve to address during the Webinar? Email advisors@cmgwealth.com

Categories: Tactical Investment Strategies Tags: Forbes, high yield, Mike Sciortino, Steve Blumenthal, Webinar

Blumenthal in Forbes: Bond Model Says Sell

Posted on 03.13.15 |

ForbesSteve Blumenthal, CEO of CMG Capital Management Group, writes in Forbes about”the year that interest rates will finally rise.” An excerpt:

“Employment figures continue to surpass analyst estimates and the trend over the last six months has been strong. Last Friday’s upside surprise sent interest rates higher. It is expected that the Fed moves off its zero bound peg by September.

“Liftoff is likely just the beginning of the journey. That popular song rings louder in my head, All About That Fed. The problem with rising rates is that bonds lose money, especially when your starting place is ultra-low yields.

“Confusion deepens the more you turn on CNBC. One expert shouts rates are going higher. The next argues they’re headed lower. Both make a good case.”

See the full story: Rate Hike Ahead, Bond Model Says Sell

Categories: Tactical Investment Strategies Tags: Bonds, Forbes, Steve Blumenthal

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Hypothetical Presentations: To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including: (1) the model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using client assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight; (2) back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the adviser’s use of the model if the model had been used during the period to actually mange client assets; and, (3) CMG’s clients may have experienced investment results during the corresponding time periods that were materially different from those portrayed in the model. Please Also Note: Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index. (i.e. S&P 500 Total Return or Dow Jones Wilshire U.S. 5000 Total Market Index) is also disclosed. For example, the S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The historical performance results of the S&P (and those of or all indices) and the model results do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, nor the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing indicated historical performance results. For example, the deduction combined annual advisory and transaction fees of 1.00% over a 10 year period would decrease a 10% gross return to an 8.9% net return. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet, his/her investment objective(s). A corresponding description of the other comparative indices, are available from CMG upon request. It should not be assumed that any CMG holdings will correspond directly to any such comparative index. The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes. CMG portfolios may be more or less volatile than the reflective indices and/or models.
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