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Monthly Valuation Update

Posted on 08.07.18 |

In Friday’s On My Radar, Steve offered his monthly look at market valuations. The data shows that they remain high by most every measure, however Steve says that it doesn’t mean stocks don’t move higher. Click below to see the most recent data.

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Categories: Market Snapshot, Tactical Investment Strategies

FAANGs Dominate S&P 500

Posted on 07.20.18 | Leave a Comment

The market cap of the top five S&P 500 companies: $4.1 trillion…  The market cap of the bottom 282 S&P 500 companies: $4.1 trillion. Just saying…

Source: Michael Batnick, CFA. http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2018/07/19/pareto/

Categories: Equities, Market Snapshot, Tactical Investment Strategies

NASDAQ’s Jill Malandrino Interviews Steve Blumenthal

Posted on 06.19.18 |

Last week, NASDAQ’s Global Market Reporter, Jill Malandrino, interviewed Steve Blumenthal at the Philadelphia Stock Exchange.

Steve discussed the Fed’s recent interest rate hike and its plans for additional increases this year. Steve urged caution, noting that 10 of the last 13 interest rate increase cycles have landed the US in recession. Click below for the full interview and potential moves investors can make to protect and preserve.

Source: NASDAQ

Categories: Equities, Fixed Income, Market Snapshot, Monetary Policy, Tactical Investment Strategies Tags: Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, recession, The Fed

Recession Watch Indicators

Posted on 05.29.18 |

Recently, we offered current U.S. recession watch charts, including the Employment Trends Index, the Economy and the S&P 500 Index, and Inverted Yield Curve.

It’s critically important to remain vigilant and to check these indicators regularly because the next great buying opportunity could be right around the corner.

The current recessions charts indicate…

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Categories: Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Market Snapshot, Tactical Investment Strategies

The Debt Bubble and Interest Rate Trigger

Posted on 05.14.18 |

Our equity market trend model signals remain moderately bullish and our bond market trend model signals remain bearish. With that caveat, we’re speeding down the road with limited visibility to the problem that exists just around the next turn. The mother of all bubbles exists and it is in the debt markets. It is global in scale and there is no easy way around the problem. Like bubbles past, this too will pop.  The trigger?  Rising interest rates.

The debt situation in the U.S. is bad. As of December 31, 2017, it stands at 329% debt-to-GDP. It’s worse in the Eurozone, which is currently at 446% debt-to-GDP. For perspective, credible studies show countries get into trouble when debt-to-GDP exceeds 90%.

But what does this really mean for the economy and for you?

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Categories: Global Economy, Market Snapshot, Tactical Investment Strategies

Equity Market Valuations and Probable Forward Returns

Posted on 02.20.18 |

At which point do rising interest rates spark the fire?  Rates are key to the equation of risk.  In Friday’s On My Radar, Steve surveys what the current equity market valuations tell us about risk… and likely forward returns.  Should you be playing more offense than defense or more defense than offense?  Valuations can help.

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Categories: Equities, Fixed Income, Market Snapshot, Monetary Policy, Tactical Investment Strategies Tags: Equities, On My Radar, Steve Blumenthal, valuations

Blumenthal’s 2018 Market Outlook

Posted on 12.18.17 |

In Friday’s On My Radar, Steve provides his much-anticipated market outlook for 2018.

Steve says, “The weight of market trend evidence remains bullish.  I remain focused on both market momentum and trend evidence. Despite the aged, overvalued and over-bullish environment, as evidenced in Trade Signals each week, I remain moderately bullish on both equities and fixed income.”

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Categories: Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Market Snapshot, Tactical Investment Strategies

Blumenthal Interviewed by Nasdaq

Posted on 12.18.17 |

On Friday, December 15, CMG Founder and CIO Steve Blumenthal was interviewed by Nasdaq global markets reporter Jill Maladrino.  Jill asked Steve about the current state of the market, his 2018 outlook and his recent On My Radar piece called “Start Small, Grow Tall.”

Click below to watch the short interview.

Categories: Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Market Snapshot

Volatility: Calm Before the Storm?

Posted on 09.25.17 |

August and September are the two worst performing months for stocks each year.  You wouldn’t know it from the relative calm in the market.  From Bloomberg’s David Wilson, “This month’s pattern of calm for U.S. stocks persisted even after Federal Reserve officials laid out plans to begin selling some of the central bank’s bond holdings. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is headed for its lowest daily average in any September since calculations began in 1990.  Wednesday’s 0.4-point decline in the VIX, to 9.78, as the Fed announced the monetary-policy shift.”  The all-time low was in early 2007 at 9.39.  Readings below 10 are rare.

Here is a look at the VIX Volatility Index since 1999.  Imagine the calm confidence that set over the market in 2007.  VIX measures perceived risk.  We should get worried when everyone is comfortable and see opportunity when others are in fear.

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Categories: Market Snapshot, Portfolio Construction, Tactical Investment Strategies

Monthly Valuation Update

Posted on 09.11.17 |

Every month, Steve reviews several market valuation metrics in an effort to provide visibility into forward 7-, 10-, and 12-year returns.  In this week’s On My Radar, Steve looks at Median P/E and also shares GMO’s 7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts.  It’s a must-read!

READ MORE

Categories: Equities, Market Snapshot, Tactical Investment Strategies Tags: Equities, On My Radar, Steve Blumenthal, Trade Signals, trend following, valuations

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This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any CMG client from any specific funds or securities. Please note: In the event that CMG references performance results for an actual CMG portfolio, the results are reported net of advisory fees and inclusive of dividends. The performance referenced is that as determined and/or provided directly by the referenced funds and/or publishers, have not been independently verified, and do not reflect the performance of any specific CMG client. CMG clients may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods.
Hypothetical Presentations: To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including: (1) the model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using client assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight; (2) back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the adviser’s use of the model if the model had been used during the period to actually mange client assets; and, (3) CMG’s clients may have experienced investment results during the corresponding time periods that were materially different from those portrayed in the model. Please Also Note: Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index. (i.e. S&P 500 Total Return or Dow Jones Wilshire U.S. 5000 Total Market Index) is also disclosed. For example, the S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The historical performance results of the S&P (and those of or all indices) and the model results do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, nor the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing indicated historical performance results. For example, the deduction combined annual advisory and transaction fees of 1.00% over a 10 year period would decrease a 10% gross return to an 8.9% net return. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet, his/her investment objective(s). A corresponding description of the other comparative indices, are available from CMG upon request. It should not be assumed that any CMG holdings will correspond directly to any such comparative index. The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes. CMG portfolios may be more or less volatile than the reflective indices and/or models.
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Written Disclosure Statement. CMG is an SEC registered investment adviser principally located in King of Prussia, PA. Stephen B. Blumenthal is CMG's founder and CEO. Please note: The above views are those of CMG and its CEO, Stephen Blumenthal, and do not reflect those of any sub-advisor that CMG may engage to manage any CMG strategy. A copy of CMG's current written disclosure statement discussing advisory services and fees is available upon request or via CMG's internet web site at (http://www.cmgwealth.com/disclosures/advs).