Archives for July 2015

Trend Remains Bullish For Stocks And Bonds

Posted on 07.30.15 |

CMG Capital Management Group Risk Barometer July 29, 2015 Trade Signals by Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group

The aged cyclical bull market up trend remains in place; however, fewer stocks are holding the market up. Our favorite Trend Model, Big Mo, is in decline but continues to favor stock exposure.

As for bonds, the Zweig Bond Model remains in a “buy” signal – bullish on long-term bond exposure. High yield bonds are a different story. They look shaken and for now the trend is lower. Our CMG HY Bond Program remains on a “sell” signal.

Blumenthal Spotlight On Biotech

Posted on 07.29.15 |

Wealth through ingenuity.

By Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group

Here is a technical view on Biotech – there is good underlying support at the March/April highs and the June and early July lows (360 level on “IBB” – iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (ETF).

We have been long Biotech in our CMG Opportunistic All Asset Strategy (about a 9% weighting in that portfolio strategy). We continue to own it today.

Investment Strategies For Global Recession – Blumenthal in Forbes

Posted on 07.29.15 |

Forbes Steve Blumenthal’s latest Forbes article analyzes signals that point to a high probability of a global recession. An excerpt from the article:

Recent events and key economic models point to a high probability of a global recession. Ground zero of the coming global recession is likely Europe.

Gold In A Portfolio

Posted on 07.27.15 |

By Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group

Gold is in a cyclical bear market. Nothing has changed since early 2013.

I believe that a simple trend based process can identify the major bull market and bear market trends and help us position accordingly.

Below is a 13-Week over a 34-Week moving average trend indicator. When the 13-Week price trend is above the 34-Week trend, Gold is in a cyclical bull market. Note the short-term technical support in “GLD” at $100.

Bonds A Buy, Trend Positive, Sentiment Bullish

Posted on 07.24.15 |

CMG Capital Management Group Risk Barometer July 22, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group

The title to this week’s update pretty much captures the weight of evidence. The market has rallied off of the Extreme Pessimism readings of just a few weeks ago and investor sentiment remains in area that has produced positive returns for the market.

Concerning is the Volume Supply vs. Volume Demand chart. It is in a sell signal and this process has historically been a good market directional indicator. Big Mo remains in a buy signal and the 13/34 Week EMA trend chart remains positive. The heavy boat floats forward. Put in place downside stop loss risk processes and stay tactical.

Greece And The Sovereign Debt Crisis

Posted on 07.20.15 |

Greece and The Sovereign Debt Crisis by STeve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group Inc. By Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group

I started to write about Greece again but all I can say is Greece is screwed. Germany’s iron fist is going to come back to bite them. Greece, per se, doesn’t matter due to its small size; but this is not just about Greece. An unavoidable divide has occurred – particularly with France. Confidence and trust is lost. The deal is an economic disaster. Germany wants a smooth divorce. They just might get it – Greece should exit.

Italy, Spain, Portugal and France are up next. The debt and entitlement obligations are not manageable – period.

Global Recession Watch Continues

Posted on 07.17.15 |

Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group

A summary of the current economic picture.

The US economy has been slow in recovering from the Great Recession. Weak Retail Sales and Industrial Production since December initially triggered a replay of the “severe winter” meme from last year. However, as we near the end of the summer months, the indicators are a mixed bag.

– Employment and Income have been relatively strong.

– June update for Industrial Production was a welcome advance, although the indicator is up only 1.54% year-over-year, its lowest YoY reading since February 2010. Industrial Production is now 0.6 percent off its interim high in December.

Trade Signals – Sentiment Suggests a Bounce

Posted on 07.17.15 |

CMG Capital Management Group Risk Barometer 7/15/2015 By Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group

Investor sentiment remains the major positive story for the market. Current readings reflect extreme pessimism which is historically bullish for the market.

I see continued deterioration in trend evidence yet both Big Mo and the 13/34-Week EMA suggest the market trend remains up – we could see a bounce in the market.

High Probability of a Global Recession – Trade Signals

Posted on 07.10.15 |

CMG Capital Management Group Risk Barometer July 7, 2015 The latest Trade Signals from Steve Blumenthal, CEO of CMG Capital Management Group, yields provocative findings. Says Steve:

“Trend evidence is deteriorating with fewer stocks holding up the market. One of my favorite equity market indicators fired a sell signal on 6-30-2015. You can see that chart below.

“The Zweig Bond Model remains in a sell and our High Yield Bond Program remains in a sell (we are positioned in cash). I have increased the “risk” monitor. Should Big Mo or the 13/34 Week moving average charts signal a sell, I will turn bearish on the market. I’m currently neutral on the market at best.”

Perspective: Why A Short Taxi Ride Was Worth Every Penny

Posted on 07.07.15 |

Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG

Sometimes we gain valuable perspective in unexpected places.

On this particular trip, I arrived very late in the evening wanting to get to my hotel and to bed as quickly as possible. The next morning I had a very important presentation and I wanted as much rest as possible. As fate would have it, my driver from the airport to the hotel was very engaging and skillfully initiated and sustained our conversation throughout the entire ride.