CMG AdvisorCentral

Tactical investing news, views and resources for financial advisors

Archives for June 2015

4 Things To Be Grateful For At Mid-Year

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Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG Capital Management Group

Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG

It starts with being grateful for the people who have, do or will impact your life.

Believe it or not, we are now  at the midway point of 2015 and heading into a long July 4th weekend. Whether it’s miles away from your daily routine or right where you are today, as human beings there’s no time like the present to step back and just “be”. Yes, be in the present. Use this as an opportunity to relax, recharge, and reconnect. When I consider the areas in which we can be grateful, I focus on 4.

1)Freedom

What a great time to offer thanks to the many that have made the freedom we enjoy today possible. That begins with the 56 men who signed the Declaration of Independence. As a special tribute, the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia is tapped 13 times every 4th of July in honor of the original 13 colonies. Then, what about our military?

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Bond And Stock Market Outlook

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By Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group Inc.

CMG Capital Management Group logo

Wealth through ingenuity.

Bond yields rose again this week and are nearing an 8-month high.

Rising yields are good for some stocks and bad for others.  Dividend payers, REITs and Utilities have been among the recent worst performers.

Alternately, banks and life insurance stocks have been rising since January and strong again last week.  Bond yields began rising in early February.  The 10-year Treasury yield has gone from 1.67% (YTD low on February 2) to 2.48% last Friday.

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Bond Signal Still Says Sell

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CMG Capital Management Group Risk BarometerBy Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group

Trend remains favorable but aged and it frankly feels tired.  Sentiment is now neutral and both the CMG High Yield and the Zweig Bond Model remain in sell signals.

Included in this week’s Trade Signals:

  • Cyclical Equity Market Trend: The Primary Trend Remains Bullish for Stocks
  • Volume Demand Continues to Better Volume Supply: Bullish for Stocks

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Buffett, Burgers And Stock Valuations – Blumenthal In Forbes

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Are Stocks Really Cheap Relative To Bonds? Steve Blumenthal asks in his latest Forbes article. An excerpt from the article:

ForbesWhat looks cheap today becomes not so cheap when rates rise and, as you’ll see, the market is certainly “not cheap.”

The Fed’s zero interest policy (6 ½ years and counting) and QE bond buying activities have driven bond yields to historic lows and bond prices to historic highs (bond prices go down when interest rates (yields) rise and go up when interest rates decline).

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How Your Business Can Produce More

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Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG Capital Management Group

Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG

How can you realign and retool your business?

Why do you get the tires on your car realigned periodically? Because due to the bumps, twists and turns in the road, every once and a while you need to realign to get back on track. Is your business any different? Of course not.

Have you checked your business alignment recently? Ask yourself the following questions:

* How is your client’s total experience with your firm?

* Are you still as passionate about the service you provide as you were one year ago?

* If not, what has changed?

* What components of your business must you realign now?

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Three-Way Asset Strategy

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Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group

Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group

On My Radar: Three-Way Asset Strategy (Stocks, Bonds and Gold)

The concept here is simple and often simple is best.  The red line shows the performance from 1968 to present when holding the asset classes (S&P 500, long-term bonds and gold) when the 3-month moving average is above its 10-month moving average.  It shows how a simple three-way model can do well against the stock market as represented by the Standard and Poor’s 500 Total Return Index.

Here is how it works:

  • The concept is to stay fully invested in any of the three assets provided each asset’s 3-month MA is above its 10-month MA.
  • If, for example, gold is the only asset with its 3-month above its 10-month, then the model will be 100% long gold. If stocks and bonds, than 50% is positioned in each.  If all three are in a positive up trend, than 1/3rd is allocated to each.
  • It’s that simple. The model’s returns are better and much less volatile than the S&P itself.

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CMG Equity Indicator Signals Short Term Buy

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CMG Equity Market Risk Barometer 06.19.2015CMG Equity Market Risk Barometer: Short-term Investment Sentiment has reached Extreme Pessimism – suggesting a bullish equity investment posture.

By Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group

Interestingly, investor sentiment, as measured by NDR’s Daily Trading Sentiment Composite, has been in the extreme pessimism zone about 26% of the time. During which the S&P 500 Index has gained 33% per annum (12-30-1994 to present. Note data in the chart below).  During periods of extreme optimism (about 28% of the time) the S&P 500 Index declined nearly 11% per annum.  Data that shows the crowd is usually wrong at sentiment extremes.

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16 Tips Every Advisor Can Benefit From Today

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Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG Capital Management Group

Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG

How having daily guiding principles will help you as an advisor stay focused.

The most successful financial advisors possess discipline and focus. Many follow a set of rules they have created based on their experience over time. It is this adherence to these principles that make them successful.

This was certainly the case with another famous financier, Baron Rothschild. He was a member of one of the richest families in the world. By the 19th century, they ran a financial institution possessing the power and influence of a combined Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley.

I read recently that after his death in the early 1800’s, as his executors were going through his belongings they ran across a list of the rules he followed to achieve his success. Sound principles like this never go out of style. I offer them to you today for your consideration.

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How To Play This Crazy Bond Market – Blumenthal In Forbes

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Forbes“This is just not normal,” CMG Capital Management Group CEO Steve Blumenthal writes in his latest Forbes article The ‘Bigger Short’ Or How To Play This Crazy Bond Market. “Nearly 90% of the industrialized world economy is presently anchored by zero rates, and half of all government bonds in the world today yield less than 1%. Wow. The race into risky assets continues, but those assets are bid up and richly priced.”

What can investors do in this crazy, mixed up bond market?

“One idea,’ Steve offers, “is to use a process like the Zweig Bond Model as a tool to identify the bond market’s primary trend.  The Zweig Bond Model, named after the great Marty Zweig, has been in a sell signal since early April 2015 with the exception of one short week. It is in a sell at the time of this post.”

See the Forbes article The ‘Bigger Short’ Or How To Play This Crazy Bond Market. | See all Steve Blumenthal’s Forbes articles.