CMG AdvisorCentral

Tactical investing news, views and resources for financial advisors

Archives for November 2014

Investment Risk Elevates

|

Extreme bullish sentiment, pushes risk arrow farther to the right.

Extreme bullish sentiment, pushes risk arrow farther to the right.

By Steve Blumenthal, CIO
CMG Capital Management Group

Trade Signals, Wednesday Nov. 26, 2014 —  Trend evidence remains positive as measured by Big Mo and the 13/34-Week EMA on the S&P 500. Sentiment is far too bullish, suggesting short-term caution.

Sentiment has reached the extreme bullish state about 28.5% of the time since 1994. The average return is a -10% when such extremes have been reached. The simple message is to be weary of crowds at extremes.

Investment Risk Elevates: Due to current extreme bullish sentiment, I’ve moved the risk arrow farther to the right.

Conclusion: Trend evidence remains positive and don’t fight the Fed or the tape remain the important theme. Own equities (but hedged).

Read More >

Blumenthal On Bonds

|

1977 Treasury BondBy Steve Blumenthal, CIO
CMG Capital Management Group

Trend following process moved us from HY
to very short-term bond exposure last week

For more than 22 years I’ve been trading the intermediate-term trends in the high yield market. I wake up each day, grab a coffee and sit in my favorite chair. With laptop online, the first thing I do is look at the prior day’s high yield bond mutual funds’ closing prices – it’s a pretty long list. Do anything for that long a period of time and you gain a feel for trend. Of course, my wife looks over and says, “Looking at charts again.” It has remained so interesting to me. I know – I need to get a life.

Anyway, I’ve been warning on the coming default wave in high yield and I can say with some confidence that high yield is usually one of the first asset classes to warn of recession. Though, of course, past performance means zilcho in this business.

Read More >

Happy Thanksgiving

|

Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG Capital Management Group

Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG

” As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them.” – John F. Kennedy

We at CMG pause at this special time of year to thank you, our clients, and to wish you and your family a Happy Thanksgiving!

Thanksgiving is the day we celebrate the small joys of the day together. We enjoy the smell of the turkey roasting and the pie baking while we listen to the crackling of the wood in the fireplace. We enjoy the jokes that are told and the old family stories that are shared once again.

Thanksgiving is a day to be grateful and happy with who and what we have. Nothing is more important than this sharing of this moment in time. Hold tightly to these moments, they will stay with you forever.

Read More >

The New Enhanced Portfolio

|

InvestmentNewsThe traditional 60/40 buy and hold portfolio is dead, CMG Capital Management Group CEO Steve Blumenthal told InvestmentNews in the story Investment Managers ditching 60/40 portfolios in favor of more liquid alternatives

Enhanced Modern Portfolio Theory is what Blumenthal calls it. It’s not that Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is wrong, rather that it’s time to question whether 60/40 remains the best way to optimize the risk-reward relationship. This asset mix is simply too narrow in the current low-dividend-yield, low-inflation, low-interest-rate environment.

Read More >

Valuations And Risk High

|

Market Sentiment CMG Capital Management Group

Technical trends remain positive

CMG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT GROUP
MID-WEEK MARKET REVIEW

By Steve Blumenthal, CIO, CMG Capital Management Group

Big Momentum (“Mo”) still says go, yet excessive optimism warns to expect a sell-off. I remain modestly bullish on equities. Buy the dips and own equities but hedged. Risk remains high due to high valuations and the length of the aged bull market.

Positives are interest rates, corporate buy backs and global central bank liquidity.

Read More >

Be truly remarkable

|

Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG Capital Management Group

Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG

Life is too short and the older you get the more you realize that. Charles Schulz once said, ” Life is like a ten speed bicycle. Most of us have gears we never use.” Why not be different and why not be remarkable?

You can control the pace at which you pursue your dreams. You can create your own reality, decision by decision and day by day. Your experiences give you a reference point from which you learn and grow. This is an invaluable resource from which you can draw confidence and courage to move forward and be all you can be.

I have found that once your mind is stretched by a new and different perspective of who you are and how you might best succeed, it can never return to where it was before. Your possibilities have just expanded. The great thing is, you never know when you will run across a single idea, maybe even from a totally unrelated business, that will revolutionize your business.

Read More >

Tactical Rotation Strategy Webinar

|

Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG Capital Management Group

Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG

On Wednesday, December 3rd at 12:00PM EST, Mike Sciortino and Michael Hee will discuss the CMG Tactical Rotation Strategy and why it makes sense in your clients’ portfolios today.

To register for the webinar, please sign up here:  https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/119847414

The CMG Tactical Rotation Strategy (TRS) seeks to generate returns in all market conditions based on the concept that various asset classes and sectors experience bull and bear markets at different times.

The strategy employs an equally weighted strategic rotation model and allocates the portfolio to the top two asset classes from a universe of six: Domestic Equities, International Equities, Bonds, Commodities, REITs & Cash.

Read More >

Extreme Optimism Suggests Caution

|

Market Sentiment CMG Capital Management Group

Technical trends remain positive

CMG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT GROUP
MID-WEEK MARKET REVIEW

By Steve Blumenthal, CIO, CMG Capital Management Group

Technical evidence remains positive. Big Momentum (“Mo”) is in a buy signal since October 14, 2011 and trend evidence (as measured by the 13/34-Week EMA (see chart below) is positive.

Investor sentiment has moved quickly from Extreme Pessimism to Extreme Optimism. This is neutral at best with such optimism suggesting caution.

Read More >

Nothing Short of Amazing

|

Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG Capital Management Group

Michael F. Sciortino, Sr. Executive Vice President, Managing Director, Head of Distribution, CMG

I recently ran into an old friend in the business that I’ve known for more than 25 years. I still remember something he shared with me many years ago. “Amazing possibilities are open to those who pursue them with enthusiasm.”

Being young and new in the business back then, I embraced this philosophy and have seen it produce consistent above average results year in and year out.

Indeed, changing your thinking changes everything. You can make your life be what you want it to be. The beautiful thing about life and particularly our business is that you can do something positive each and every day to change or improve your future and your client’s future. This begins by waking up each morning with a great degree of enthusiasm for what you do. You can enthusiastically embrace the responsibility your role entails and impact many lives along the way.

Read More >

Blumenthal in IBD: It’s A Game Changer

|

Investor's Business Daily“It’s a game changer,” Steve Blumenthal, CEO of CMG Capital Management Group, told Investor’s Businsess Daily in the story Three Best Reasons To Invest In The Currency-Hedging ETFs.

Steve was referring to Friday’s news that the Bank of Japan is massively scaling up its bond-buying program. Both the nation’s central bank and its state pension fund also plan to buy domestic and foreign stocks. This injection of liquidity, Steve added, should inflate Japanese equity prices aggressively, similar to what multiple spells of quantitative easing did for U.S. stocks in the past six years or so. Excerpt from the story:

It’s a shot in the arm for Japan’s perennially listless economy. But the stimulus makes for a bearish outlook on the Japanese currency. For U.S. investors, a weakening yen could significantly erode returns on their investments in that nation.

Fortunately, there’s a simple way for people to get exposure to Japan but mitigate risk of the dollar’s potential rise against the yen: exchange traded funds. Several hedged ETFs let investors buy a rally in Japanese stocks without getting hit on currency moves.

“It’s double bang for the buck,” said Blumenthal, who invests in WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (ARCA:DXJ), up 6% so far in 2014.

Read to story in Investor’s Business Daily: Three Best Reasons To Invest In The Currency-Hedging ETFs