A quick summary of what we are seeing by investment category (equity markets, fixed income and liquid alternatives):
- Equity Markets: Investor sentiment remains extremely optimistic (short-term bearish for equities), Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed moved from a +1 to 0 (now neutral on Equities). The 13/34-Week EMA trend indicator remains bullish. The CMG NDR Large Cap Momentum Index is nearing a buy signal. Neutral to positive on equities.
- Fixed Income: HY remains in a buy signal and the Zweig Bond model remains in a buy.
- Liquid Alternatives: The CMG Opportunistic All Asset ETF Strategy is taking on more risk. Recently, we increased allocations to technology and biotech. Yesterday, we sold out of short duration bonds (“MINT”) into Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (“VT”).
Due to high valuations and the aged nature of the cyclical bull market, for the moderate growth investor I favor a reduced portfolio exposure to equities (hedged). 30% equities, 30% fixed income (tactically managed), 40% to liquid alternatives (tactical all asset, managed futures, global macro via mutual funds and gold).
For charts, analysis, and commentary see the rest of the story in Trade Signals – Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed Moves to Neutral Signal, Investor Sentiment Remains Too Optimistic, HY and Zweig Remain in Buy Signals | By Steve Blumenthal |
The current opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal and are subject to change. They do not represent the opinions of CMG. CMGs trading strategies are quantitative and may hold a position that at any given time does not reflect Steve’s forecasts. Steve’s opinions and forecasts may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used as a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or strategy.