Tactical investing news, views and resources for financial advisors
Last week, NASDAQ’s Global Market Reporter, Jill Malandrino, interviewed Steve Blumenthal at the Philadelphia Stock Exchange.
Steve discussed the Fed’s recent interest rate hike and its plans for additional increases this year. Steve urged caution, noting that 10 of the last 13 interest rate increase cycles have landed the US in recession. Click below for the full interview and potential moves investors can make to protect and preserve.
Source: NASDAQ
From On My Radar (September 29, 2017):
The global economy continues to improve. Recession probability for the U.S. remains minimal in the next six to nine months. Europe’s economy is on better footing. Risks persist, including North Korea, a sharp slowdown in China, fiscal dysfunction in the U.S. (e.g., tax cuts, fiscal spend), and growing protectionist risks to global trade. Debt remains a significant headwind to growth as can be seen in this next chart.
Total Credit Market Debt-to-GDP
Here’s how to read the chart:
Source: Ned Davis Research
Also note the very last data box “Non-Financial Productivity.” Overall GDP growth comes from the total number of workers multiplied by their collective productivity. More workers producing more equals greater growth. With aging demographics (typically people moving into their lower spending years… they have a lot of stuff and kids out of the house) and fewer workers… you can see the pressure it can put on growth. And then with debt to be repaid, how much extra money is there to spend on things. Growth suffers.
Two Ds: Debt and Demographics are headwinds to growth. It is going to be hard for corporations to grow earnings much faster than GDP. Some will, of course, but in the aggregate, it’s a headwind and we are seeing it consistently in the low growth GDP stats. What we really need is Dedication, Determination, and Discipline. Let’s tell that to our representatives in Washington.
READ MOREThe Fed raised rates last week and bond yields sank lower. Many expected the opposite reaction. If you missed last summer’s mortgage refi opportunity, I believe you are going to get another chance. Interest rates appear to be heading back down towards their July 2016 lows.
And what are the implications of Fed policy on the U.S. stock market? Ned Davis Research’s Ed Clissold pointed out in a tweet late yesterday, “Today’s #FOMC decision is a reminder that even slow tightening cycles eventually impact the stock market. #fed @NDR_Research.”
The chart Ed shared in his tweet follows. Here is how to read it:
In Friday’s On My Radar, Steve Blumenthal wrote, “Last Monday, the VIX broke below 10 to close at 9.77, the lowest level in more than a decade. There are only three other days the index has closed at lower levels, all of them in December 1993. Investors are complacent to risk. They shouldn’t be.”
Investment consulting firm 720Global also recently wrote about market volatility in The Unseen, “Volatility: A Misleading Measure of Risk.”
As investors, we are negligent if we follow the Fed’s lead into this complacent stupor. By prodding economic growth with unproductive debt and reigniting asset bubbles, the central banks have simply done more of what created the spasms of 2008 in the first place. Despite the markets calm façade and historically low perception of risk, the vast chasm that lies between perceived risk and reality is troublesome.
READ MOREFollowing a two-day meeting of the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve held current interest rates steady, but the central bank is likely to raise rates in the coming months (possibly in mid-June). Fed officials are not worried about the slow pace of growth during the first quarter of 2017. (U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 0.7 percent.) The Fed said the slowdown was “likely to be transitory.”
“Inflation measured on a 12-month basis recently has been running close to the committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective,” the Fed said. Household spending rose “only modestly” but the fundamentals underpinning consumption growth “remained solid.”
Declines in the unemployment rate has been the primary driver behind the Fed’s recent rate increases. The unemployment rate fell to 4.5 percent in March, the lowest level since 2007. (The Labor Department will release the April jobs report on Friday.)
This week we offer several charts concerning inflation, interest rates, U.S. economic recoveries, equity market performance and equity mutual fund flows.
This chart plots U.S. economic recoveries. Note the blue line. Debt’s a major drag:
Source: Crestmont Research
Keep an eye on inflation (rising):
Year-over-year change in CPI – look at the January numbers in the far right of the chart. The most recent BLS – Bureau of Labor Statistics Annualized Inflation Rate year-over-year equals 2.5%. The Fed’s target has been reached:
Source: Advisor Perspectives
And if you were wondering what inflation looks like by category:
Source: dshort.com
Source: dshort.com
Here is the current probability of a Fed March interest rate hike:
Switching to equities, Ned Davis Research has something they call “Top Watch Indicators”… meaning indicators that help them spot a probable market top.
Here’s how you view the next chart:
Source: Ned Davis Research
Chalk one little dot up for the active fund managers. All the money has been flowing into passive index funds and ETFs:
And all that money that chased into “high dividend papers?” In a few short months, they’ve given up six years of excess returns. I continue to be cautious on high dividend stocks due to over popularity, low interest rates and the risk of rising rates.
Diversification has been under pressure the last few years. The average university endowment lost 1.90% in 2016. However, it is best viewed over the long term and designed to achieve a certain return relative to an acceptable amount of risk. 100% allocation to stocks is for a different investor risk profile. Not wise to compare one asset class to a diversified investment plan. With that said, in case you were wondering… this is how the 10 richest universities invested their money in 2016:
The number one rule many of us were taught is “Don’t Fight the Fed.” I like to add “trend” into that equation and, as you’ll see in the next chart, the math is compelling.
When the Fed raises rates (don’t fight them) and the trend turns negative, equities underperform. Focus on the red arrows. Two different time periods are measured, however, the message is the same. The big corrections come when both the Fed and trend turn negative. I wrote some time ago in On My Radar to “watch out for minus 2.” We currently sit at -1. I’ll share this chart from time to time – especially if -2 is triggered.
Here is how you read the chart:
Source: Ned Davis Research
I hate making predictions.
I got the tech wreck and sub-prime right, but was far too early on those predictions. Importantly, the predictions below could most certainly be wrong. We live in a highly complex world. We can measure instability, we can score up risk but we can’t precisely know timing.The clear risk to me today is in the bond market.
Yields are at 5,000-year lows.
71% of the world’s government bonds are yielding less than 1%. 33% yield less than 0%. In a picture it looks like this:
Risk is being overlooked in HY bonds. Yields on high yield debt are close to the same yields on less risky loans. The chase for yield has driven investors to riskier asset classes.
I am anticipating a once-in-a-generation buying opportunity in HY bonds. While the trend this week is up, continue to invest with the trend. Move to the safety of cash or Treasury Bills when the trend crosses down.
Click below for a great chart showing what a 1% increase in interest rates does to bond prices. Show it to your clients!
READ MORE
Last week, Steve Blumenthal attended the Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit. In this week’s On My Radar, Steve shares his notes from the conference, as well as links to select video interviews.
Hedge fund legend Julian Robertson kicked things off on Tuesday evening. Julian sees opportunities in technology and biotech stocks and he believes there’s pain ahead for investors not properly positioned due to the bubble created by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the global central banks.
Steve also highlights interviews with Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management and Marc Lasry of Avenue Capital Group.
READ MORE