I believe forward 10-year returns will be in the low single digits and the ride will be bumpy. Speaking of looking forward. Here is Bill Gross from his recent post titled “Culture Clash”:
“Prepare for renewed QE from the Fed. Interest rates will stay low for longer, asset prices will continue to be artificially high. At some point, monetary policy will create inflation and markets will be at risk. Not yet, but be careful in the interim. Be content with low single digit returns.”
On my worry list is the China debt mess (far larger than the subprime bomb that exploded in 2008), a sovereign debt crisis in Europe, political inaction, geopolitical event risk, a coming pension crisis (overpromised, underestimated and significantly underfunded) and negative interest rates across much of the developed world.