Big Mo Archives - CMG AdvisorCentral

CMG Equity Indicator Signals Short Term Buy

Posted on 06.20.15 |

CMG Equity Market Risk Barometer: Short-term Investment Sentiment has reached Extreme Pessimism – suggesting a bullish equity investment posture.

By Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group

Interestingly, investor sentiment, as measured by NDR’s Daily Trading Sentiment Composite, has been in the extreme pessimism zone about 26% of the time. During which the S&P 500 Index has gained 33% per annum (12-30-1994 to present. Note data in the chart below). During periods of extreme optimism (about 28% of the time) the S&P 500 Index declined nearly 11% per annum. Data that shows the crowd is usually wrong at sentiment extremes.

Trade Signals: Cyclical Equity and Bond Trends Remain Bullish

Posted on 03.06.15 |

By Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group

Steve Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group, counsels strategic patience in investing From an investment management perspective, I’ve followed and written about trend and investor sentiment for many years. I have found that going through the drill each week in a systematic way helps me stay balanced and in line with the market’s primary trend. I believe risk management is paramount in the investment process. When to hedge, when to become more aggressive, etc.

Trade Signals started after a colleague asked me if I could share my thoughts with him. I have found that putting pen to paper has really helped me in my investment management process and I hope that this research is of value to you.

Strategy Review & Cyclical Trends

Posted on 04.25.14 |

Steve Blumenthal, Founder & CEO
CMG

CMG Tactical Strategy Review. No major changes since last week: We continue to hold mostly long equity exposure in our CMG Opportunistic All Asset Strategies with a modest move toward emerging markets across the portfolio. The portfolios are approximately 70% Equity, 30% Fixed Income. Our CMG Tactical Rotation Strategy moved to a more defensive position for April: 50% TLT (iShares Treasury Bonds) and VNQ (Vanguard REIT). High yield bond prices are firm to higher. We remain positioned long high yield bond fund exposure.

The cyclical trend remains positive as measured by Big Mo, investor sentiment is mixed and the Fed is supportive for now. Immediately ahead of us is the seasonally challenged May-October period. I believe that putting hedges in place remains the prudent thing to do. Risk is so significantly elevated due to Fed manipulation. The system is more leveraged than it was in 2008 and this cyclical bull is aged. Tactical strategies can further your portfolio diversification in important ways.

Now, here is a look at the S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2014. The blue line in the chart below shows the tendency for the market to correct in the May to October period.