By Stephen Blumenthal, CEO, CMG Capital Management Group.
In the current On My Radar I share my top-line notes from the 12th Annual Strategic Investment Conference, presented by John Mauldin and Altegris last week. Maybe one of the speakers, David Rosenberg is right. His presentation was titled “The Rodney Dangerfield Expansion – the economy just can’t get any respect.” There were various views, but what is clear is that traditional return potential is low.
For a quant geek like me, these few days are like sipping research data from a fire hose. Hope you find my notes from day one helpful in your work with your clients.
For the full story see On My Radar: “The Rodney Dangerfield Expansion.”
As I reflect on the various views on what lies ahead (recession, inflation, default, growth), I recall the fact that most economists get it wrong (even the great ones). I lean towards “Don’t Fight the Fed and the Tape.” It is “liquidity that moves markets” as reminded by the great Druckenmiller in the intro quote:
“Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve board. And whatever you do, focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity. Most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.”
As for recessions, I thought of the piece I wrote last week titled, “Recession Watch – Keep an Eye on This Chart”. For me it takes a lot of economist confusion out of the equation though it is important to take in data from some of the brightest minds amongst us.
Steve Blumenthal is CEO and CIO of CMG Capital Management Group. The objective behind all of Mr. Blumenthal’s work is to help advisors build better portfolios by allocating with a long term game plan that is risk sensitive and properly diversified. Mr. Blumenthal is a self-proclaimed “quant geek” with an analytical mind for the markets that helps him connect with everyday investors and industry experts alike.