By Steve Blumenthal, CIO
CMG Capital Management Group
Trade Signals, Wednesday Nov. 26, 2014 — Trend evidence remains positive as measured by Big Mo and the 13/34-Week EMA on the S&P 500. Sentiment is far too bullish, suggesting short-term caution.
Sentiment has reached the extreme bullish state about 28.5% of the time since 1994. The average return is a -10% when such extremes have been reached. The simple message is to be weary of crowds at extremes.
Investment Risk Elevates: Due to current extreme bullish sentiment, I’ve moved the risk arrow farther to the right.
Conclusion: Trend evidence remains positive and don’t fight the Fed or the tape remain the important theme. Own equities (but hedged).
As for the bond market: The Zweig Bond Model remains bullish. High yield has turned higher. We are trading back into high yield today. Overall, bond yields are low and thus provide less value to a portfolio. Inflation is not an issue currently. Given the ultra low yields on fixed income, we suggest a more strategic (tactical) approach with the portion of your portfolio allocated to bonds.
Included in this week’s Trade Signals:
- Cyclical Equity Market Trend: Cyclical Bullish Trend for Stocks Remains Bullish (as measured by NDR’s Big Momentum indicator and separately by the 13/34-Week EMA S&P 500 Index Trend Chart)
- Weekly Investor Sentiment Indicator – NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll: Extreme Optimism
- Daily Trading Sentiment Composite: Extreme Optimism
- The Zweig Bond Model: Cyclical Bull Trend for Bonds (supporting longer-term treasury and Corporate bond exposure). Click here for notes on “How To Track The Zweig Bond Model” on your own.
For the full story see Trade Signals – Bullish Trend Evidence Remains – Investor Sentiment Too Optimistic
Steve Blumenthal is CEO and Chief Investment Officer of CMG Capital Management Group. CMG manages tactical portfolios and strategies for advisors, individuals, and institutions. The objective behind all of Mr. Blumenthal’s work is to help advisors build better portfolios by allocating with a long-term game plan that is risk sensitive and properly diversified. Mr. Blumenthal is a self-proclaimed “quant geek,” with an analytical mind for the markets that helps him connect with everyday investors and industry experts alike.