The trend remains negative for equities and high yield. We continue to see relative strength leadership in utilities, fixed income, tax-free fixed income and gold. Investor sentiment remains extremely pessimistic. This supports a short-term oversold bounce in equities.
The Global Recession Watch indicator continues to show a probable global recession has started. See my U.S. Recession Signals Intensify article in Forbes here.
Equity Trade Signals
- CMG Ned Davis Research (NDR) Large Cap Momentum Index: Sell Signal – Bearish for Equities
- Long-term Trend (13/34-Week EMA) on the S&P 500® Index: Sell Signal — Bearish for Equities
- Volume Demand is greater than Volume Supply: Sell Signal – Bearish for Equities
- NDR Big Mo: See note below (active signal: sell signal on 1-15-16).
Investor Sentiment Indicators
- NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll: Extreme Pessimism (short-term Bullish for Equities)
- Daily Trading Sentiment Composite: Extreme Pessimism (short-term Bullish for Equities)
– By Steve Blumenthal
For fixed income and economic indicators, and the rest of the story see Trade Signals – Trend Negative, Investor Sentiment S/T Bullish, Relative Strength Leaders (High Quality Bonds, Utilities and Gold)
The current opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal and are subject to change. They do not represent the opinions of CMG. CMGs trading strategies are quantitative and may hold a position that at any given time does not reflect Steve’s forecasts. Steve’s opinions and forecasts may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used as a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or strategy.