As you see in the next chart, increased corporate debt loads place profits at risk.
It’s profits we need to worry about especially when valuations are high. This is a headwind to further market upside.
If you want to get a good sense for why high valuations lead to poor future returns, I wrote a piece this week for Forbes titled, Plump P/E Ratio Suggests Subdued Stock Market Returns Ahead.
The point is that debt is a drag on profits. It is concerning now but will be even more concerning when interest rates begin to rise. So it is forward we must set our gaze.